Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles – The Next Big Thing?
ByMany believe that PHEVs represent one of the best transportation growth opportunities in the near- to mid-term. Calling plug-in technology “truly game-changing,” AllianceBernstein predicts that lithium-ion batteries will gain the necessary power capability and fall in price before 2012, paving the way for widespread PHEV commercialization. “Plug-in hybrids represent a real near-term solution to America’s overreliance on foreign oil imports and energy prices that escalate the cost of everything and threaten the very economic life of our nation,” said Austin, Texas, mayor Will Wynn at the January 2006 launch of Plug-In Partners, a coalition of businesses, utilities, and more than 40 U.S. cities formed to demonstrate a ready market for PHEVs. Municipally owned utility Austin Energy has set aside $1 million worth of electric-bill rebates to help its citizens and businesses buy plug-in hybrids when they’re commercially available; advocates are pushing to make that happen in the next several years.
GM, Ford, and Toyota all disclosed in the first half of 2006 that they’re working on plug-in hybrid development. Then GM stole a march on its rivals by rolling out its Saturn VUE plug-in plans, albeit without any production targets or timetable, at the 2006 Los Angeles Auto Show in November. “GM and Toyota are both saying they want to be first in plug-ins,” says CalCars’ Kramer. “It’s good to have a horse race.” In early 2008, Toyota matched GM’s stated goal to have plug-ins on the road by 2010.
GM took another interesting tack in that race at the Detroit Auto Show in January 2007. After pouring some $1 billion into R&D for hydrogen FCVs still years from wide commercialization, GM signaled a new direction toward an electric future with the E-flex platform, a plug-in hybrid with a twist. Instead of the common HEV configuration of a gasoline engine and electric motor both powering the car’s wheels at different times or in combination, the E-flex chassis uses 100% electric power from its batteries for propulsion. A small 1-liter, three-cylinder gas engine is used only to power the onboard generator. In other words, the serial (rather than parallel) hybrid design operates as an electric car all the time, not just at low speeds. GM committed to the E-flex for production (though without a timetable), but the first model on the platform, the four-door Chevy Volt sport coupe, is only a concept car. The platform is “flex” because GM says it can accommodate a flexible ethanol mix in the gas engine, a hydrogen fuel cell to power the batteries, or other variations.
“Instead of a singular architecture with fuel cells, we’ll have a platform that can share a lot of stuff,” says Posawatz, a GM vehicle line veteran whose previous rollouts included not-so-clean gas hogs such as the Chevrolet Avalanche and Cadillac EXT. “That’s much more of an intriguing business proposition.” GM’s also opening the door to innovators in the battery sector, looking to form a team or partnership with companies that can crack the price, power-delivery, and heat-control barriers in lithium-ion technology. It could be an ambitious bet with a big payoff for GM, but its track record in clean tech leaves many skeptical. “We’re very pleased that they’ve put a stake in the ground here,” says CalCars’ Kramer, “but they could go for a decade saying it’s not ready.”
Meanwhile, PHEVs from DaimlerChrysler are already on the road in customer tests of the Sprinter passenger van. Testers include the South Coast Air Quality Management District in Southern California, the Kansas City Power Authority, and the New York Times Company. It’s a true test—the 40 vans include some with gasoline engines, some with diesel, some using lithium-ion batteries, and others using NiMH. DaimlerChrysler has no current plans for volume production, says Loren Beard, the company’s senior manager of environment and energy planning.
To be sure, plug-in hybrids face technical challenges, especially the development of next-generation batteries to improve storage of the electricity that powers the car in its initial all-electric mode—and make it more affordable. But PHEV advocates say we’re not too far away, and as noted above, a lot of R&D efforts and VC dollars are pursuing the opportunity. “I don’t think we need new show-stopper technology; we just need to improve what we have,” says Kramer. “It’s a question of chemistry, not physics.” In the meantime, while waiting for PHEVs from the auto companies, some entrepreneurs have found a niche in selling plug-in conversion kits to current HEV owners. Companies offering such kits include EnergyCS (under the brand EDrive) in Monrovia, California; Hybrids Plus in Boulder, Colorado; and Hymotion in Concord, Ontario, Canada. But it isn’t cheap—a typical conversion runs $10,000 to $12,000.
Related posts: